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June quarter inflation data reduces risk of rate risk
The June quarter inflation data is likely to see the RBA keep rates on hold next week, economists predicted.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1 per cent in the June 2024 quarter and 3.8 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
“The annual rise of 3.8 per cent for the June quarter is up from 3.6 per cent in the March quarter,” said ABS head of prices statistics, Michelle Marquardt.
BDO Economics partner Anders Magnusson said while yesterday’s CPI data is as sticky as expected, it is no higher than the RBA expected.
“This is good news as the RBA tries to keep a lid on inflation without losing the gains made by workers through a strong labour market,” said Magnusson.
BDO said it maintains its previous forecast that the next movement by the RBA will be a rate cut in early 2025.
“We don’t believe that the RBA will raise the cash rate next week, but the ongoing cost-of-living struggles for many Australians will likely continue until early next year. In particular, inflation in housing is persistent,” said Magnusson.
BDO said a lot of recent “noisy monthly inflation releases” have caused unnecessary worry.
“Globally, countries like the US, Canada, and other European countries have experienced these scares but have eventually moved to lower interest rates,” said Magnusson.
“I expect that we are experiencing a lagged impact of what other countries have already experienced.”
Deloitte Access Economics partner, Stephen Smith said the June quarter CPI data should put to rest the notice that the RBA should lift rates, an act would do nothing but “tempt a recession”.
“Australian mortgage holders and businesses should breathe a sigh of relief as the case for a rate rise should now dissipate,” said Smith.
“If anyone has any doubts about inflation’s downward trend, today’s figures show that annual core inflation has fallen for its sixth consecutive quarter and has reached its lowest rate in two years.”
Smith noted that the factors driving Australian inflation at the moment cannot be fixed through interest rate hikes.
The main factors contributing to the increase were rents due to housing supply constraints, fruit and other food prices due to weather conditions and insurance premiums.
“Higher rates only fight inflation on the demand side, by subduing spending. Australia’s economy is already weak with investment and consumption in the economy too low, and with business insolvencies escalating,” said Smith.
“One thing is clear, the Australian economy is not overheating.”
Smith said lifting rates would fail to bring inflation to target any quicker and would only serve to damage the economy by erasing the benefits of the Stage 3 tax cuts.
Commenting on the latest CPI data, Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that Australia’s headline inflation peaked lower and later than many comparable economies, while core inflation has moderated faster than the US, Canada and the Euro area.
“We’ve seen around the world that inflation can zig and zag on the way down – and, because Australia’s inflation peaked lower and later than in many countries, we’re seeing that trend here now,” said Chalmers.
01 August 2024
Miranda Brownlee
accountingtimes.com.au
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Chris Wybenga
B.Bus, CA
Chris is the Managing Director of the Firm who established the practice in August 1994 and has been responsible for its growth and development since that time.
Chris has over 40-years experience in the Chartered Accountancy profession, predominantly spent in small to medium sized firms, advising both small business and individuals in areas such as taxation and accounting as well as business restructuring and superannuation advice.
Chris is active in the development of young accountants both in mentoring cadets at the Firm and lecturing in taxation for the CA Program for the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
- 1980 – Commenced employment and part time university studies
- 1985 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from University of Technology, Sydney
- 1986 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
- 1988 – Registered as a Registered Company Auditor
- 1994 – Established Wybenga & Partners (formerly known as Farrar & Wybenga)
Dianne Bechara
B.Bus, CA
Dianne is responsible for the day-to-day operations and administration of the practice.
Dianne has over 30-years Chartered Accountancy experience and has significant expertise in providing advice and solutions to high-net-worth individuals and their associated entities. Dianne also has considerable knowledge in the areas of taxation, business services, superannuation, and compliance.
Dianne is active in promoting gender equality in the industry through various programs and mentoring opportunities. Dianne is also committed to the development of young accountants and donates considerable time to sharing her expertise.
- 1992 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from University of Technology, Sydney
- 1993 – Commenced employment in acounting profession
- 1996 – Commenced career with Wybenga & Partners
- 1997 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
- 2002 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga & Partners
Roger Potter
B.Bus, CA
Roger is responsible for the HR aspect of the Firm, cultivating the culture, and maintaining the highly social environment we pride ourselves on.
Roger has over 35-years in the Chartered Accountancy profession and significant expertise in providing advice and solutions to small businesses and high-net-worth individuals. He also has extensive experience in the areas of Self-Managed Superannuation Funds and retirement strategies.
Roger is active in the development of young accountants both in mentoring cadets at the firm and lecturing in taxation for the CA Program for the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
- 1985 – Commenced employment and part time university studies
- 1990 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from University of Technology, Sydney
- 1992 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
- 1998 – Commenced career with Wybenga & Partners
- 2002 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga & Partners
Tess Uncle
B.Sc, M.Com, CA
Tess has over 22-years experience in Chartered Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, and business services. In particular, Tess has had significant experience in MYOB and assisting clients in day-to-day bookkeeping activities and periodic reporting.
Tess is responsible for the Firm’s training and development needs.
Tess is active in promoting gender equality in the industry through various programs and mentoring opportunities. Tess is also committed to the development of young accountants and donates considerable time to sharing her expertise.
- 2001 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time accountancy studies
- 2004 – Graduated Masters of Commerce from the University of New South Wales
- 2005 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
- 2007 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
- 2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
- 2016 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga & Partners
Schedule a Meeting with Tess
Adam Roberts
B.Bus, B.Sc, CA
Adam has over 18-years experience in Chartered Firms and in this time has had a broad range of experience in superannuation, taxation, and business services. In particular, Adam has had significant experience in MYOB and assisting clients with periodic management reporting.
Adam is responsible for the implementation of technology in the Firm and sourcing new areas of innovation and efficiency.
Adam is active in the development of young accountants and donates considerable time to sharing his expertise.
- 2005 – Commenced employment with Wybenga & Partners and part-time Accountancy Studies
- 2005 – Graduated Bachelor of Science from the University of Western Sydney
- 2007 – Graduated Bachelor of Business from the University of Western Sydney
- 2010 – Admitted as an Associate Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia
- 2010 – Promoted to Manager at Wybenga & Partners
- 2012 – Appointed as Associate Director
- 2016 – Appointed as Director of Wybenga & Partners